The New Commerce Stack: How AI and Payment Protocols Are Engineering Financial Institutions Out of the Customer Relationship
In the last 48 hours, the future of e-commerce and digital banking was revealed. It did not come from a single press release, but from two, seemingly separate announcements.
On October 27, 2025, Mastercard and PayPal announced a partnership to "accelerate secure global agentic commerce." The very next day, OpenAI and PayPal announced they were teaming up to "power instant checkout and agentic commerce in ChatGPT."
Make no mistake: these are not separate partnerships. This is the coordinated, public unveiling of a new, multi-layered "Agentic Commerce Stack." It is a system being built by the world's largest AI platforms, payment hubs, and card networks to systematically disintermediate traditional financial institutions (TFIs) from the customer relationship and, eventually, from the payment rails themselves.
For leadership at credit unions, community banks, and commercial banks, this is an urgent strategic wake-up call.
Deconstructing the "Agentic Commerce Stack"
This new ecosystem is designed to completely replace the TFI-centric model that has governed commerce for decades.
The Old Model was linear, and the financial institution was visible: Customer -> Bank App (to check funds) -> Merchant Website -> Bank/Card (at checkout).
The New "Stack" is a set of modular layers, and the traditional bank is invisible:
Layer 1: The "Agent" (Discovery): This layer owns the customer. It is the conversational interface where intent is born. Think OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google's AI, and Microsoft's Copilot.
Layer 2: The "Hub" (Wallet & Trust): This is the central router. PayPal’s announcement places it squarely in this role, connecting the AI Agent to its vast merchant network and its payment infrastructure.
Layer 3: The "Rails & Standards" (Security): This layer provides the new "rules of the road." This is the entire point of the Mastercard partnership, which introduces the "Mastercard Agent Pay" platform as a new, secure, tokenized standard for AI-driven transactions.
Layer 4: The "Funding" (Commodity): This is the traditional financial institution. Your bank account or credit union-issued card is now simply a "funding source," hidden three layers deep inside the PayPal wallet, completely commoditized and interchangeable.
The OpenAI-PayPal deal connects Layer 1 to Layer 2, conquering the "front-end" of customer intent. The Mastercard-PayPal deal connects Layer 2 to Layer 3, securing the "back-end" rails. The TFI is relegated to Layer 4.
The Real Threat: Disintermediation by Protocol
The most dangerous part of this new model is not just the loss of brand visibility; it is the loss of power and influence at the protocol level.
Complete Disintermediation
In this new stack, the TFI is now three steps removed from the customer's initial intent. Your brand, your mobile app, and your entire advisory relationship are completely bypassed. The customer is "talking" to ChatGPT, not to your institution. You have become invisible.
Protocol-Level Exclusion
This is the critical, existential threat. New, industry-defining standards—like the "Agentic Commerce Protocol" (ACP) mentioned in the OpenAI release and the "Mastercard Agent Pay Acceptance Framework"—are being written by this new consortium of tech and payment firms.
Traditional financial institutions are not in the room for these discussions. You are not co-authoring the rules. You will simply be told to comply with the new standards after they are set, locking you out of the system's design and governance.
Loss of Data and Relevancy
The new stack—OpenAI, PayPal, and Mastercard—captures all the rich, high-value intent data ("I'm thinking about buying..."). Your institution only sees the final, commoditized transaction data.
This makes it impossible to compete. You lose all ability to offer relevant, timely products at the point of discovery. Your "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) offer, your pre-approved personal loan, your new rewards card—all of these interventions become irrelevant because you are no longer part of the conversation.
The Threat to Merchant Services
This stack is also a direct assault on your commercial banking division. How can a TFI's merchant services compete? This new consortium can now offer merchants instant, secure access to all major AI platforms with minimal effort, all leveraging a single, unified framework.
The Stablecoin Endgame: The "Stack" is Rail-Agnostic
This new ecosystem is being built on traditional card rails today for one reason: to achieve immediate scale and maintain regulatory familiarity. But it is being designed for a new settlement layer tomorrow.
The same players are deeply invested in stablecoins. PayPal has its own PYUSD. Mastercard has announced "end-to-end stablecoin capabilities" and a partnership with Fiserv for the FIUSD stablecoin to ride on its network.
This stack is the perfect "Trojan horse." In the near future, the "Rails" layer (Layer 3) can be seamlessly swapped from card networks to stablecoins. The AI agents can then execute autonomous, 24/7, programmable payments that completely bypass traditional card networks and bank-operated ACH and wire systems.
Strategic Imperatives for Financial Institutions
This is not a "wait and see" moment. This is a "mobilize now" crisis. Your board and leadership team must act on three strategic imperatives:
Fight for a Seat at the Table. You must immediately get involved in these new standard-setting bodies. Whether through industry consortiums or your own initiatives, you must be in the room where the "Agentic Commerce Protocol" and new "Agent Pay Frameworks" are being written.
Re-imagine Your "Interface." If the new customer interface is an AI agent, you must have an AI agent strategy. How will your institution's trusted AI agent serve your customer, plugging into these new rails to execute transactions on their behalf while protecting their financial interests?
Embrace New Rails. Stop fighting stablecoins. Start developing a strategy to issue, hold, and transact with them. The only way to compete with a PayPal-issued PYUSD or a Fiserv-issued FIUSD is to have your own TFI-issued, fully regulated stablecoin that can be offered as a superior, more trusted settlement option within this new agentic stack.
These announcements are not separate. They are the coordinated blueprints for a new, agent-driven economy. This system is being explicitly designed to relegate traditional financial institutions to the commoditized "funding" layer. The choice for TFIs is no longer if they will engage with AI and stablecoins, but whether they will be architects of the new system or merely utilities paying rent to use it.
If this topic resonates with your credit union's challenges, schedule a private consultation to discuss how our strategic frameworks can help.
